The Next Generation of XR (Part 1.5)
Blurring the lines between base reality and virtual reality
Before I get into the ‘boring’ business model stuff, I want to make a sort of ‘amendment’ to my last article. Like a good UX designer, I am always hungry for feedback and to destroy my assumptions. I had a really great conversation with a fellow VR/AR enthusiast in my favorite private discord channel.
This unnamed hero questioned my assumption for the need for standalone VR headsets at all.
TLDR;
The next generation of VR should indeed have just about all those features I listed previously. However, it will be much more affordable and future-proof if the headset just houses the sensor and lenses rather than the processing chips as well.
Standalone VR is too much of a ‘dead-end’ technology to really become mainstream.
Most people would probably be better served with a wireless VR device that was an accessory to their current computing device, and an AR headset that replaces their smartphone.
A Change of Perspective
My argument from the last article was that we would need to invest in making standalone headsets that are almost as good as PC headsets so that the average person can have access to this technology. I was worried about prematurely limiting the growth of VR innovation in exchange for short-term gains in cheap headsets (a la Oculus).
His argument was that the use cases for mobile/standalone VR is likely better served by AR devices. Augmented Reality headsets would have many of the same utility (such as virtual workspaces, playing immersive games, and even haptic-enabled experiences) but running on a less powerful, (and more affordable) mobile chipset. AR devices can get away with running on lower specs because you don’t have to render an entire world around you at all times, you only have to render what you are augmenting!
I was worried about a gap in access, most people will never buy a gaming computer to run a PC headset that has the latest and greatest technology. This would shift investment away from innovation and into cheap, mobile headsets.
But he showed me that in reality, most people simply don’t have a need for fully immersive experiences in the first place. Gaming in VR is great, but consumer VR shouldn’t be limited to just games. When you look at other things people do in VR outside of games (check out this video for a list), almost none of these benefit from having a ‘mobile’ headset.
Standalone VR miiiight be a dead end
Wireless VR is absolutely a Must! However… what is really the point in standalone VR devices? You are almost likely never going to be using VR safely outside. If you want to walk around a huge space, you’d be better off going to some kind of arena-scale VR arcade where they can give you a backpack, more haptics, or even just run your device off of 5G wifi.
Just about any use case you can think of for standalone VR headsets will be better served with augmented reality headsets or wireless PCVR headsets.
- Fully immersive experiences need far more rendering power than can be had on a mobile chipset to be as immersive as it truly can be.
- All other experiences are actually more ‘spatial’ computing use cases more than anything else. Meaning they are concerned with using the space around you better, rather than putting you in a completely different space.
Standalone VR just puts us in a race against physics. How small or cheap can we really make chips able to render an entire immersive world in high resolution, with high framerates, and low latency all without heating up too much or having a super short battery?
We will keep worrying about how to make the same tech just a little bit smaller and cheaper and faster, rather than thinking about how to make the experience more immersive, empowering, and accessible.
We will not win that race.
Then again, as the unnamed hero also points out, there still may be some important niche for standalone VR. Perhaps it will replace the laptop and be a portable workstation. People often travel but still have need of most of what their PC can offer. The same can likely be said for VR, where you will need to make some edits for an immersive movie, game, or other media while on the go. And yet, even that may run on a — throwback warning — pocket or briefcase computer! 🤣
Granted, it would be more like an Apple AirPod case that can charge the headset with its own extended battery.
Either way, standalone VR will likely not be the device of choice for most consumers like Facebook thinks it will be. It will be a strong subset of the market, but not something we should be putting all of our investment into. Simply because every generation will give increasingly diminishing returns.
To continue with the solution our hero has been leading up to, consider this:
If we really want affordable, wireless VR headsets, why not figure out how to make devices that can run on the computing devices we all already have?
That was a HUGE unlock for me!
In other words, the next generation of VR should instead focus on making VR headsets interoperable. It should be able to run on ANY device, whether that be a laptop, game console, or family computer. If we can make wireless headsets that can pair with the devices people already have in their home, you can still get the best of both worlds! (Okay, maybe not the best of PCVR if you don’t have a gaming computer, but good enough for the average consumer’s needs).
Limitations like heat, weight, graphics, computing, battery power, affordability, and technical literacy can all be mitigated by ‘simply’ creating a VR device that pairs with your computer as easily as a bluetooth accessory.
Obviously, it won’t actually be that easy… but it is certainly better than trying to setup a tethered PCVR device on a gaming computer.
Think streaming services like Shadow, for VR, but localized to your home!
If you take this further, you can even create dedicated home PC devices that are no-muss, no-fuss little home servers allowing the entire household to run all of their VR headsets off that device! So you are basically creating an all-in-one PC-server-router for all of your at-home computing needs. With this in place, most people won’t even need dedicated monitors, TVs, laptops, or any other device other than their VR headset(s) for the home, and AR headset for on-the-go.
VR is just one part of the XR spectrum
As we continued talking, he also brought up this idea of using varifocal lenses to replace foveated rendering inside the headset (since you don’t really have to worry much about saving rendering power as much)…. and then also scale that up so you can have an entire varifocal wall or window!!
Imagine being able to have something like this, but on your wall?? You could literally have ANY view you want, regardless of the constraints of your home.
Say goodbye to non-interactive TV screens, empty walls, boring pictures, and even dreary windows. With interactive ‘virtual monitors’ you can truly customize your room and feel immersed even outside the headset!
I’m not sure if you’re as excited as I am about this… but this gave me shivers. It’s like a real-life version of a Star Trek ViewScreen, but with the options of a HoloDeck!!
I originally actually wanted to make this series about XR in general, but I thought that would be too wide a topic to cover. After this conversation, I realized that these have to be talked about together. AR and VR are inextricably intertwined.
Many people like to think of them as some sort of competition. You often hear “AR is better than VR because of This” or “Why would people buy AR if they already have a VR?” but quite frankly, these are uneducated opinions.
AR and VR are pretty much opposite ends of the same spectrum.
The former is for augmenting the world around you, while the latter is for being immersed in a virtual world. They are NOT mutually exclusive. You can even have AR inside of VR experiences (the best kinds of AR!).
Therefore any conversation about VR, must also include AR. Because these work together. I was silly to try and explain the potential for mainstream virtual reality without mentioning the role of AR.
======== <PSA> ========
As I have always been saying, AR is going to be what massively changes the world sometime in this decade. VR on the other hand, is the endgame. That is where everything will evolve towards as we eventually figure out full-dive technology (putting your mind into a computer… or vice versa).
VR will constantly be evolving and changing drastically over the decades to come, therefore it will not reach ‘mainstream’ levels of adoption simply because it changes too much for people to catch up with it. It is here to stay, but it is a long, slow-burn growth.
AR on the other hand has just 1 major problem to solve in order to become a mainstream technology: form factor.
This is not a simple problem. This includes things like field of view, resolution, and interaction. But it is a solvable problem that all converges into the look and feel of the device delivering AR experiences.
Therefore, augmented reality will most likely be ‘figured out’ within the next 10 years. I’d give it 3–5, but I am an optimist.
======== </PSA> ========
So to circle back to the earlier hype, this means that the average person will be able to access AR technology, which in turn will get them prepped for VR experiences as well.
There are dozens of companies creating AR experiences for everything from enterprise training, to phone-based pass-through AR filters, to tabletop gaming.
People will therefore have a number of ways to get acquainted with this new tech. Millions of people already have been using AR filters and lenses on their devices through social media or Google/Apple phones.
I want to do some user research to say for sure, but based on my direct observations helping thousands of people use immersive experiences, I think people will mostly use AR for multimedia, entertainment, and work. Similar to how they use their current devices! AR is just a cooler, more empowering, and more immersive way to do so (the main problem is to make it easier than current devices too).
The best thing about AR is that you don’t need a headset to have that immersive ‘augmented’ experience! Imagine something like SpaceTop for a virtual workspace, family game night, or a cooking tutorial. Even the famed ‘infinite screens’ touted in VR will probably be better in AR through varifocal ViewScreens, since that is inherently more easily shared than a completely virtual field of screens.
I can go on and on about the implications of these ideas. But the point is that AR is a more scalable tool to fill the technological gap for the masses, rather than PC-level, standalone VR.
If more research and investment went into creating wireless VR that could connect to any modern computing device, it would be far more accessible.
Furthermore, due to the practical use cases of spatial technology, most people could use some kind of AR headset where they can do all of that on-the-go. Meanwhile, they could use their VR headset at home to setup their ideal office, game room, or whatever use they want for a completely immersive experience.
To make this super clear:
AR is the replacement for the smartphone and allows you to use your current environment. VR replaces your static devices like a computer, game room, home theater, home office, etc with a custom, dynamic environment.
In fact, I see an even more radical reality.
Where people have at least one room in their home dedicated to virtual reality, where they can have multiple headsets, haptic props, full body 360 tracking, and environmental effects like sound, temperature, and so on (instead of expensive, boring furniture and nicknacks). But of course, most of this is optional, so you can have people who just have a headset with haptic gloves, all the way up to people who can afford a fully immersive VOID-like ‘hyper-reality’ experience at home.
Meanwhile, they can replace things like their monitors, TVs, static pictures, and maybe even a wall or window with a ‘ViewScreen’ that allows them to interact with the virtual world outside of any headsets.
The next generation of XR will see us shift away from devices in our hands, to devices on our faces. From looking into a little window, constrained to interacting with our fingers; to stepping into a whole world through that window, interacting with our hands, eyes, and other body parts.
The next generation of XR will be a time of transition across the whole spectrum of computing.
Let’s make sure we get it right this time around.
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Please feel free to clap if this made sense, comment if you have some more ideas, and follow me for more content! :D
Stay tuned for next week’s dive into the Business Models of the immersive future, followed by what that future will actually look like.
